E’ lo scenario più probabile, l’unico che propone Gpg in questo mese (dove ci propone altri dati). Il vantaggio del CDX è annullato, c’è perfetta parità fra i due poli come intenzioni di voto, per il CSX c’è addirittura un corposo vantaggio al Senato.
DATI NAZIONALI
– partito o coalizione: percentuale [camera – senato]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 41,8% (-0,1% ) [345 o 216 – 134]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 12,6% (-0,7%) [65 – 30]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 41,8% (+0,8%) [345 o 216 – 148]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,4% (-0,2%) [0 – 0]
– ALTRI: 1,4% (-0,1%) [4 – 3]
DATI REGIONALI
– partito o coalizione: percentuale [senatori]
Piemonte
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 44,5% [13]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 9,0% [2]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 42,0% [7]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 44,5% [13]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 9,0% [2]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 42,0% [7]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
Lombardia
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 53,5% [28]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 7,5% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 35,5% [19]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
Veneto
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 54,5% [14]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 11,5% [3]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 29,5% [7]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 2,0% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 54,5% [14]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 11,5% [3]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 29,5% [7]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 2,0% [0]
Friuli Venezia Giulia
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 48,0% [4]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 10,5% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 37,5% [2]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 48,0% [4]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 10,5% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 37,5% [2]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
Trentino Alto Adige
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 26,0% [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 12,5% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 29,5% [3]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 29,5% [2]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 26,0% [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 12,5% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 29,5% [3]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 29,5% [2]
Liguria
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 41,0% [3]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 8,0% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 47,0% [5]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 41,0% [3]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 8,0% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 47,0% [5]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
Emilia Romagna
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 34,5% [9]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 7,0% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 53,0% [12]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 5,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 34,5% [9]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 7,0% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 53,0% [12]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 5,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Toscana
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 29,5% [5]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 8,5% [2]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 59,0% [11]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 29,5% [5]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 8,5% [2]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 59,0% [11]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Marche
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 35,5% [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 12,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 49,0% [5]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 35,5% [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 12,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 49,0% [5]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 3,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Umbria
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 33,0% [2]
– CENTRO (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 11,5% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 53,0% [4]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 33,0% [2]
– CENTRO (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 11,5% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 53,0% [4]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Lazio
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 38,0% [9]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 13,0% [3]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 45,5% [15]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 38,0% [9]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 13,0% [3]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 45,5% [15]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
Abruzzo
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 38,5% [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 14,5% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 44,5% [4]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 38,5% [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 14,5% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 44,5% [4]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 2,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Molise
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 35,0% [1]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 18,0% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 45,0% [1]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 35,0% [1]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 18,0% [0]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 45,0% [1]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
Campania
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 39,0% [9]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 18,0% [4]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 41,5% [17]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,0% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 39,0% [9]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 18,0% [4]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 41,5% [17]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,0% [0]
Puglia
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 40,5% [6]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 15,5% [3]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 42,5% [12]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 40,5% [6]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 15,5% [3]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 42,5% [12]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Basilicata
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 32,5% [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 18,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 47,5% [4]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 18,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 47,5% [4]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,0% [0]
– ALTRI: 1,0% [0]
Calabria
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 36,5% [3]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 19,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 43,5% [6]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 0,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 19,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 43,5% [6]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 0,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Sicilia
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 37,5% [15]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 27,5% [5]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 33,0% [6]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 37,5% [15]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 27,5% [5]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 33,0% [6]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 0,5% [0]
Sardegna
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 36,5% [3]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 14,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 44,5% [5]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 3,5% [0]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): 36,5% [3]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): 14,0% [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): 44,5% [5]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: 1,5% [0]
– ALTRI: 3,5% [0]
Estero ed UV
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): [3]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: [0]
– ALTRI: [1]
– CDX (LD, LN, PDL): [2]
– PDN (UDC, FEL, MPA, API): [1]
– CSX (PD, Rad, IDV, Soc., Ver., SEL, FDS): [3]
– MOV. 5 STELLE: [0]
– ALTRI: [1]
WHAT IF?
In questa tornata non ci sono regioni realmente incerte, certo lo scarto in Piemonte, Sicilia, Campania e Puglia non è rassicurante ma è tuttavia palpabile. La previsione è dunque piuttosto solida. E’ possibile che il CDX guadagni 2 Senatori in Toscana (PDN poco sopra l’8%), così come il CSX potrebbe guadagnarne 2 in Piemonte per lo stesso motivo. Il CSX, in caso di vittoria alla Camera avrebbe qualche chance di vincere in Piemonte e/o Sicilia ottenendo così una maggioranza anche al Senato, certo le probabilità non sono molte.
