Welcome to our sixth projection for the United Kingdom general elections, which will take place on the 8th of June. The methodology we follow is described in detail in this post. Our previous projection can be found at http://scenaripolitici.com/2017/05/uk-general-election-2017-29-may.html.
Two days before the general election, this is our new seat projection:
Conservative Party: 365 seats (-8), of which 259 solid (-25), 48 likely (+8), 47 leaning (+11) and 11 tossup (-3)
Labour Party: 208 seats (+9), of which 138 solid (+7), 31 likely (+9), 29 leaning (-4) and 10 tossup (-3)
SNP: 49 seats (-1), of which 30 solid (-2), 7 likely (+1), 8 leaning (-3) and 4 tossup (+3)
Lib-Dem: 6 seats (=), of which 3 likely (+1), 2 leaning (=) and 1 tossup (-1)
Plaid: 3 seats (=), of which 2 likely (+1), 1 leaning (-1)
Green Party: 1 seat (=), of which 0 likely (-1), 1 leaning (+1)
UKIP: 0 seats (=)
This is the national average of the polls this projection is based on:
Conservative Party: 44.5% (-1.6%)
Labour Party: 36.9% (+2.7%)
SNP/Plaid: 4.8% (+0.1%)
Lib-Dem: 7.3% (-0.5%)
Green Party: 2.4% (+0.1%)
UKIP: 4.5% (+0.1%)
Let’s now analyse these data more in depth.
- The Conservative Party remains well ahead, but its lead has once again drastically decreased. The Conservatives are projected to gain 35 seats from the Labour Party, 7 seats from the SNP, 2 from the Lib-Dems and 1 from UKIP, while at the same time losing 11 seats to Labour. Their weakest performance is in Southern England, where the average of the opinion polls suggests there could be a 4-5% swing to Labour from 2015. In the rest of the country their position appears to be significantly stronger. UKIP standing down in several constituencies is helping the Tories win 4 extra seats, but the drastic decrease in the number of solid seats is worrying for them.
- The Labour Party has drastically improved its standing. We project they could gain 11 seats from the Conservatives in Southern England, their strongest area compared to 2015, while losing 35 seats to the Tories in the rest of the country. While remaining the largest Welsh party, they are projected to lose their only Scottish seat to the Conservatives. They have drastically increased the number of seats we project to be solid or likely for them.
- The SNP appears to be in a weaker position compared to our previous projection: they might lose 7 seats to the Conservatives, without gaining any new seat. Also many of the seats they should win have moved to the tossup territory.
- The Lib-Dems are confirming their weak position: they are projected to lose two seats to the Conservatives (including the only London seat they won in 2015) without gaining any new seat.
- Our new projection confirms that Plaid Cymru and the Green Party should hold all their seats without any new gain, but the only seat currently held by the Greens has moved to the leaning territory.
- UKIP is once again projected to lose many of its votes and the only seat they won in 2015. This loss in term of votes will be enhanced by them not running is almost half of the constituencies.
No new poll for Northern Ireland has been published, hence we are confirming our previous seat projection:
DUP: 9 seats, of which 7 safe and 2 tossups
Sinn Fein: 4 seats, all safe
SDLP: 2 seats, both safe
Alliance: 1 seat, tossup
UUP: 1 seat, tossup
Independent: 1 seat, safe
In conclusion, projecting the average of the opinion polls would lead to a Conservative victory, with a sizable working majority of 84 seats. If the Conservatives were to win only the seats we project either as solid or likely, they would be 16 seats short of a majority.