Welcome to our fifth projection for the United Kingdom general elections, which will take place on the 8th of June. The methodology we follow is described in detail in this post. Our previous projection can be found here.
With only 10 days to go, this is our new seat projection:
Conservative Party: 373 seats (-27), of which 284 solid (-19), 39 likely (-8), 36 leaning (-2) and 14 tossup (+2)
Labour Party: 199 seats (+31), of which 131 solid (+26), 22 likely (-13), 33 leaning (+13) and 13 tossup (+5)
SNP: 50 seats (-4), of which 32 solid (-2), 6 likely (-3), 11 leaning (+3) and 1 tossup (-2)
Lib-Dem: 6 seats (=), of which 2 likely (+1), 2 leaning (-2) and 2 tossup (+1)
Plaid: 3 seats (=), of which 0 solid (-1), 1 likely (+1), 2 leaning (+1) and 0 tossup (-1)
Green Party: 1 seat, likely (=)
UKIP: 0 seats (=)
This is the national average of the polls this projection is based on:
Conservative Party: 46.1% (-1.6%)
Labour Party: 34.2% (+3.2%)
SNP/Plaid: 4.7% (-0.4%)
Lib-Dem: 7.8% (-0.4%)
Green Party: 2.3% (-0.4%)
UKIP: 4.4% (-0.1%)
Let’s now analyse these data more in depth.
- The Conservative Party is still in a strong position, but its lead in terms of votes and seats appears to be evaporating. According to the average of the current opinion polls, the Conservatives should gain 38 seats from Labour, 6 from the SNP, 2 from the Lib-Dems and 1 seat from UKIP, while losing 5 seats to Labour. The Tories seem to be getting stronger in Scotland, where they should be the second largest party after the SNP, but weaker in the rest of the country. Overall Southern England appears to be the only area where they are doing worse than in 2015, compared to Labour; nevertheless the margin is significantly shrinking in most of the country. UKIP standing down in several key seats should help the Tories win 5 seats, but it is worrying for them that the number of seats that are projected to be solid or likely has drastically shrinked.
- The Labour Party is improving its position. We project they could gain 5 seats from the Conservatives in Southern England, their strongest area compared to 2015, while losing 39 seats to the Tories in the rest of the country. Also, they are projected to hold their only Scottish seat, although by a tiny margin, and to mantain their position as the strongest Welsh party, both in term of votes and seats. To add to the picture, they have also drastically increased the number of seats we project to be solid for them.
- The SNP appears to be in a somewhat weaker position compared to our previous projection, since they are now projected to lose 6 seats to the Conservatives, without gaining any new seat.
- The Lib-Dems are confirming their rather weak performance. They are once again projected not to gain any new seat, while losing two they are currently holding to the Conservatives, including the only London seat they won in 2015.
- Our new projection confirms that Plaid Cymru and the Green Party should hold all their seats without any new gain.
- UKIP is once again projected to lose many of its votes and the only seat they won in 2015. The loss in term of votes will be enhanced by them not running is almost half of the constituencies.
A new Northern Irish poll has been released, and we can confirm the results from our previous projection. The DUP majorities in Belfast South and South Antrim are projected very small, and the confidence for the 4 key-seats outlined in our previous post is very low. We once again keep Fermanagh and South Tyrone to the UUP because their candidate is the incumbent. The remaining 14 Northern-Irish seats should be safe for the incumbent parties.
In summary, this is our seat projection in Northern Ireland:
DUP: 9 seats
Sinn Fein: 4 seats
SDLP: 2 seats
Alliance: 1 seat
UUP: 1 seat
Independent: 1 seat
In conclusion, projecting the average of the opinion polls would lead to a Conservative victory, with a majority of 100 seats. If the Conservatives were to win only the seats we project either as solid or likely, they would achieve a wafer-thin majority of 0 seats.