Welcome to our seventh and final projection for the United Kingdom general elections, which will take place on the 8th of June. The methodology we follow is described in detail in this post. Our previous projection can be found at https://www.scenaripolitici.com/2017/06/uk-general-election-2017-6-june.html.
The elections are currently taking place, and projecting the average of the opinione polls gives (difference from previous election):
Conservative Party: 364 seats (+33)
Labour Party: 205 seats (-26)
SNP: 53 seats (-3)
DUP: 9 seats (+1)
Lib-Dem: 6 seats (-2)
Sinn Fein: 4 seats (=)
Plaid: 3 seats (=)
SDLP: 2 seats (-1)
Green Party: 1 seat (=)
Alliance: 1 seat (+1)
UUP: 1 seat (-1)
Independent: 1 seat (=)
Compared to our previous projection, in Great Britain we get:
Conservative Party: 364 seats (-1), of which 266 solid (+7), 38 likely (-10), 45 leaning (-2) and 15 tossup (+4)
Labour Party: 205 seats (-3), of which 137 solid (-1), 31 likely (=), 31 leaning (+2) and 6 tossup (-4)
SNP: 53 seats (+4), of which 32 solid (+2), 12 likely (+5), 6 leaning (-2) and 3 tossup (-1)
Lib-Dem: 6 seats (=), of which 1 likely (-2), 3 leaning (+1) and 2 tossup (+1)
Plaid: 3 seats (=), of which 3 likely (+1), 0 leaning (-1)
Green Party: 1 seat, leaning (=)
UKIP: 0 seats (=)
This is the national average of the polls this projection is based on:
Conservative Party: 44.4% (-0.1%)
Labour Party: 35.7% (-1.2%)
SNP/Plaid: 5.1% (+0.3%)
Lib-Dem: 7.8% (+0.5%)
Green Party: 2.2% (-0.2%)
UKIP: 4.3% (-0.2%)
Another final poll has been released for Northern Ireland, but the seat projection is unchanged from the previous one:
DUP: 9 seats, of which 7 safe and 2 tossups
Sinn Fein: 4 seats, all safe
SDLP: 2 seats, both safe
Alliance: 1 seat, tossup
UUP: 1 seat, tossup
Independent: 1 seat, safe
Let’s breakdown the results in each of the regions we considered for our projection. The number in brackets show the difference in terms of seats from the 2015 elections.
Northern England: LAB 95 seats (-15), CON 60 seats (+16), LD 3 seats (-1)
Midlands: CON 75 seats (+9), LAB 30 seats (-9)
London: LAB 37 seats (-8), CON 36 seats (+9), LD 0 seats (-1)
Southern England: CON 176 seats (-6), LAB 19 seats (+7), LD 1 seat (=), Green 1 seat (=), UKIP 0 seats (-1)
Wales: LAB 23 seats (-2), CON 13 seats (+2), Plaid 3 seats (=), LD 1 seat (=)
Scotland: SNP 53 seats (-3), CON 4 seats (+3), LAB 1 seat (=), LD 1 seat (=)
In conclusion, if the results tonight corresponded to the average of the opinion polls, the Conservatives would win with a sizable working majority of 84 seats. If the Conservatives were to win only the seats we project either as solid or likely, they would be 19 seats short of a majority.
More details of the projected results of the individual constituencies can be found in the attached spreadsheet.
